Mar 2 2009
the premier optical transceiver company. Data traffic -- the primary industry driver -- continues to grow, requiring optical transceivers to be shipped for new platform deployments and to upgrade existing systems.
The optical transceiver industry will contract sharply in 2009 but fare better than other industries, reports the latest Market Forecast from LightCounting, the premier optical transceiver company. Data traffic -- the primary industry driver -- continues to grow, requiring optical transceivers to be shipped for new platform deployments and to upgrade existing systems. Unlike the 2001 downturn, excess investment and network overcapacity are not issues; transceiver vendors have leaner inventories and are more robust. The latest down-cycle will weed out weaker suppliers, though ongoing industry consolidation will create stronger suppliers.
LightCounting forecasts worldwide transceiver sales will contract 14% in 2009 to $2 billion, with a modest recovery expected in 2010.
Despite current market conditions, LightCounting expects growth in certain segments, including the latest 8-Gbps Fibre Channel transceivers, 40-Gbps dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) modules, and active optical cables.
"The transceiver market is one of the more recession-resistant segments of the communications industry, as proven during the 2001 telecom crash when transceiver vendors were among the few to emerge from the rubble," says Vladimir Kozlov, Founder, LightCounting. "No matter how bad the economy gets, every network upgrade will require optical transceivers."
This report presents historical data from 2006 to 2008 and a detailed market forecast through 2012 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, parallel modules, and active optical cables, sorted in over 120 product categories. The historical data account for sales of 30 transceiver vendors. The market forecast is based on LightCounting's model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected FTTx subscribers.